Probability and impact — Season 4 Rollout
As of 2026-07-01 · Project hub
Every open risk's probability and impact place it on the 5x5 probability/impact matrix below: each axis is banded very low to very high, and a risk's score is the product of its two band positions (1-25), read as low, moderate or high. Default bands: 1-4 is low, 5-12 is moderate, 13-25 is high.
Open risks1
Highest score5
Bandmoderate
Matrix
| Probability \ Impact | very_low | low | moderate | high | very_high |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| very_high | 5 (moderate) — 1 risk | 10 (moderate) | 15 (high) | 20 (high) | 25 (high) |
| high | 4 (low) | 8 (moderate) | 12 (moderate) | 16 (high) | 20 (high) |
| moderate | 3 (low) | 6 (moderate) | 9 (moderate) | 12 (moderate) | 15 (high) |
| low | 2 (low) | 4 (low) | 6 (moderate) | 8 (moderate) | 10 (moderate) |
| very_low | 1 (low) | 2 (low) | 3 (low) | 4 (low) | 5 (moderate) |
Ranked risks
| Risk | Probability band | Impact band | Score | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lead editor turnover mid-season | very_high | very_low | 5 | moderate |
Where this comes from
Technique: Risk Probability and Impact Assessment · PMBOK-6 process 11.3 (Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis).