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AI Model Releases & Prediction Ledger
Tracking what was predicted, what shipped, and who was right.
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Timeline
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Type
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2026-02-05RELEASEClaude Opus 4.6 β Anthropic (1M context, agent teams, adaptive thinking)EVENT[src]
2026-02-17RELEASEClaude Sonnet 4.6 β Anthropic (approaches Opus-level, major computer use gains, 1M context beta)EVENT[src]
2026-02-16RELEASEChatGPT Lockdown Mode β OpenAI security feature blocks prompt injection, data exfiltration; for enterprise high-risk usersEVENT[src]
2026-02-13EVENTSeedance 2.0 β ByteDance AI video model; Disney + Paramount serve C&D for generating Spider-Man, Darth Vader videosEVENT[src]
2026-02-17EVENTNAACP files intent to sue xAI β illegal gas turbines at Colossus 2 data center (Memphis) operating without permitsEVENT[src]
2026-02-15EVENTNPR's David Greene sues Google β AI voice replication in NotebookLM podcast without consentEVENT[src]
2026-02-14EVENTSpotify CEO reveals senior engineers stopped writing code since Dec 2025 β only generate and supervise AI codeEVENT[src]
2026-02-12RELEASEGemini 3 Deep Think β Google DeepMind (ARC-AGI-2 84.6%, Humanity's Last Exam 48.4%, Codeforces Elo 3455)EVENT[src]
2026-02-11EVENTOpenAI disbands Mission Alignment team β 7 members dispersed; team lead Joshua Achiam becomes "chief futurist"EVENT[src]
2026-02-10RELEASEChatGPT Ads β OpenAI begins testing sponsored links on Free/Go tiers; Anthropic Super Bowl ad fires backEVENT[src]
2026-01EVENTDario Amodei publishes "The Adolescence of Technology" β warns of bioweapon risk, predicts half of entry-level white-collar jobs displaced in 1-5 years, AI smarter than Nobel laureates in 1-2 yearsAmodeiEVENT[src]
2026-02-05RELEASEGPT-5.3-Codex β OpenAI (agentic coding, new SWE-Bench Pro records, helped debug own training)EVENT[src]
2025-11-18RELEASEGemini 3 β Google DeepMind (state-of-art reasoning + multimodal, Gemini app 650M users)EVENT[src]
2026-02-17
PREDICT
xAI will face regulatory enforcement, permit revocation, or significant fines over the unpermitted gas turbines at the Colossus 2 data center in Memphis before end of 2026.
NAACP Legal Defense Fund
β³ 2026-12-31
[theverge]
2026-02-17
PREDICT
The DoD's consideration of designating Anthropic a 'supply chain risk' will either be finalized or result in a negotiated access agreement before end of 2026.
U.S. Department of Defense
β³ 2026-12-31
[theverge]
2026-02-14
PREDICT
AI-generated code supervision (not writing) is already the norm at Spotify for senior engineers as of Q4 2025. This will become industry-standard for software teams in 2026.
Gustav SΓΆderstrΓΆm
β³ 2026-12-31
[earnings_call]
2026-02-14
PREDICT
AI will replace routine code writing for senior developers β Spotify's best engineers haven't written a single line of code since December 2025 and instead generate and supervise AI-produced code. This trend will become the norm across major tech companies within 18 months.
Gustav SΓΆderstrΓΆm
β³ 2027-08-14
[earnings_call]
2026-02-12
PREDICT
Most white-collar tasks β lawyers, accountants, project managers, marketing professionals β will be fully automated by AI within 12 to 18 months.
Mustafa Suleyman
β³ 2027-08-12
[newspaper]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI will surpass top humans in competitive coding within a couple of years, leading to a moment where competitive coders will 'feel the AGI'.
Noam Brown
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
xAI plans to deploy 100 gigawatts per year of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit
Elon Musk
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AGI system capable of doing complex tasks will arrive in 5 to 10 years. Core capabilities like continual learning are still missing and will likely require one or two breakthroughs over the next five years.
Demis Hassabis
β³ 2036-02-05
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AGI is probably 3 to 5 years away, contingent on breakthroughs in reasoning, hierarchical planning, long-term memory, and the ability for systems to invent their own scientific hypotheses
Demis Hassabis
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
OpenAI is almost certain to build superintelligence within 10 more years from the 10-year anniversary of OpenAI's founding.
Sam Altman
β³ 2034-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI systems will be able to write 90% of code within 3 to 6 months, and essentially all code within 12 months from the time of statement.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AGI or superintelligence will be achieved within a decade, specifically 3 to 5 years away from the time of the interview.
Demis Hassabis
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI will automate entire job categories like software engineering, law, and finance, moving from automating individual tasks to complete jobs.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2028-02-07
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI systems will become better than humans at essentially everything, with the exponential progress potentially speeding up as AI automates AI research itself.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2030-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
50% of entry-level white collar jobs will be displaced, potentially creating an unemployed or very low wage underclass.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
Engineers will transition to being editors rather than writing code themselves, with AI handling code generation.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
Exponential AI progress will overwhelm society's ability to adapt to job displacement and economic changes.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI will reach phase three of self-iteration where AI can connect to the physical world and learn on its own, leading to either catastrophic outcomes or a utopia.
Alibaba
β³ 2032-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI will achieve 100% artificial general intelligence (AGI) when a humanoid robot can build IKEA furniture with all five human senses implemented (sight, hearing, movement/feel, smell, and touch).
Alan D Thompson
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
Full AGI (beyond minimal AGI) will be achieved some years after minimal AGI.
Shane Legg
β³ 2029-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AGI will be achieved within our lifetime, taking between 2 to 10 years
Liang Wenfang
β³ 2036-02-05
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
Artificial general intelligence (AGI) will be achieved in 5 to 10 years, requiring at least one or two breakthroughs to reach true AGI.
Demis Hassabis
β³ 2030-12-31
[youtube]
2026-02-06
PREDICT
AI will be capable of handling end-to-end software engineering tasks
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-02-06
[youtube]
2026-01-15
PREDICT
LLMs are approaching or may have reached the knowledge needed to create bioweapons, providing substantial uplift in bioweapon production β potentially doubling or tripling success likelihood.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2027-01-15
[blog]
2026-01-15
PREDICT
10-20% sustained annual GDP growth rate may be possible in the powerful AI era, but economic inequality will dramatically increase without policy intervention.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-01-15
[blog]
2026-01-15
PREDICT
Powerful AI will be smarter than Nobel Prize winners across most fields β biology, programming, math, engineering, writing β within 1-2 years. It cannot possibly be more than a few years before AI is better than humans at essentially everything.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2028-01-15
[blog]
2026-01-15
PREDICT
AI could displace half of all entry-level white collar jobs within 1-5 years. Labor markets may not recover from AI disruption as they have from past technological shocks.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2031-01-15
[blog]
2026-01-15
PREDICT
AI models will autonomously build the next generation of AI systems within 1-2 years, with millions of independent AI instances operating simultaneously or collaborating.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2028-01-15
[blog]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Transformative AI that can automate whole sectors of the economy will arrive by 2026.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
AGI (human-level AI capabilities across tasks) will likely be achieved by 2026 or 2027 based on extrapolation of current capability improvement curves
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Within two to three years, AI clusters will reach the scale to deploy millions of instances of super powerful AI models
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Within a few years, AI models will surpass the highest professional human level across domains if current capability extrapolation curves continue
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
OpenAI will have an intern-level AI research assistant by September 2026, and a legitimate AI researcher by March 2028
Sam Altman
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Grok 5 will be the smartest AI in the world by a significant margin on every metric without exception, releasing in Q1 (likely 2026 based on context)
Elon Musk
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Grok 5 has a 10% chance of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI)
Elon Musk
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
In 2026, all forms of knowledge work will experience automation similar to what software engineers experienced in 2025, where they went from typing most of their code to typing barely any by year's end. Continual learning will likely be solved in a satisfying way.
Scott Douglas
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
2026 will be the year of continual learning for AI systems.
Mark Crestman
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
Continual learning will be solved in a satisfying way in 2026, with first test deployments of home robots, and software engineering capabilities will advance significantly.
Anthropic researcher
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
AI models will be capable of doing everything a human could do at the level of a Nobel laureate across many fields.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-12-31
PREDICT
AI will automate most software engineering tasks.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-07-15
PREDICT
AI systems equivalent to a 'country of geniuses in a datacenter' could arrive as soon as 2026 or 2027. Interpretability will reliably detect most model problems by 2027.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2027-12-31
[blog]
2025-07-10
PREDICT
by 2026, which is now next year there will be math collaborations with AI.
Terence Tao
β³ 2026-12-31
[youtube]
2025-07-10
PREDICT
we will, in 10 years we will have many more much closer results.
Terence Tao
β³ 2036-02-03
[youtube]
2025-02-05
PREDICT
in 10 months we've gone from 3% to 50% on this task, and I think in another year, we'll probably be at 90%.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2026-12-02
[youtube]
2025-01-27
PREDICT
Making AI smarter than most humans across nearly all domains will require millions of chips and tens of billions in spending, most likely happening in 2026-2027. Export controls are the only thing that can prevent China from getting millions of chips.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2027-12-31
[blog]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
AI models will definitely get better at reasoning and completing a sequence of actions more reliably and more agentic in 2025, though progress is getting harder and low-hanging fruit is gone.
Sundar Pichai
β
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
AI training compute clusters will scale from current ~$1 billion to a few billion in 2025, above $10 billion in 2026, and reach $100 billion by 2027
Dario Amodei
β
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
AI models will achieve 90% performance on SWE-bench (professional software engineering tasks) within approximately one year from the interview date
Dario Amodei
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
By around 2025, 100% of code written by Anthropic would be produced by their AI models. Within 2026, all other knowledge work (non-coding white collar tasks) would experience the same automation level that software engineers experienced in 2025.
Dario Amodei
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
AI will begin impacting junior level entry level jobs and internships.
Demis Hassabis
β
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
Models trained in 2025-26 will be so far ahead that no one can catch up in subsequent cycles due to pre-training scaling alone
Dario Amodei
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
Scaling up pre-training would yield models that could begin to automate large portions of the economy
Dario Amodei
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
Hallucinations in AI models would be solved and we wouldn't be talking about them anymore
Sam Altman
incorrect
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
AGI will probably get developed during Trump's presidential term (January 2025 to January 2029)
Sam Altman
β³ 2025-12-31
[youtube]
2024-12-31
PREDICT
In 2025 we may see the first AI agents join the workforce and materially change the output of companies
Sam Altman
β
[youtube]
2024-10-11
PREDICT
Powerful AI could transform the world for the better within 5-10 years
Dario Amodei
β³ 2034-10-11
[blog]
Scorecard
Accuracy = correct / (correct + wrong). Pending excluded. Only verified predictions with sources.
| Predictor | β | β | β³ | Accuracy |
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Last updated: β